They also completed a two wave panel survey, questioning the same people before and after voting day, plus a unique survey of UKIP party members. The data was then analysed using a variety of modelling techniques to identify exactly what happened to public opinion on this issue over this period. Robust methodology paints the fairest picture, making the study and its conclusions a more scientific and reliable exercise," added Professor Whiteley. As academics we have a role to play in scientifically analysing how and why this massive change came about.
The data showed that there had been enormous variations in attitudes towards the European Union over the last decade. The big picture is that people supported membership if they felt that it was delivering what they wanted — a prosperous economy, protection against crime and terrorism, control over immigration and efficient public services.
If they did not feel that membership helped to deliver these things, or worse still prevented the British government from delivering them they opposed membership.
The series of protests, demonstrations, riots, coups and civil wars that began in across the Middle East and North Africa and have become known as the Arab Spring, created new waves of immigration into Europe. Many voters concluded that not only had successive UK governments mishandled this issue but so had the European Commission. This only served to harden views on immigration across the rest of the EU and Britain.
In managing their economy, the EU opted for austerity — resulting in significant problems for countries including Greece and Italy. Professor Whiteley believes austerity did not work, delayed economic recovery both in Europe and Britain and stimulated euroscepticism.
The study identifies a possibly unintentional advantage for the Leave campaign — the ability to mobilise two types of voters, with an official campaign and a less official grassroots campaign. We had the official campaign led by Boris Johnson that galvanised the part of the electorate that saw themselves as respectable and conservative.
Professor Whiteley notes that before the referendum, the then Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, issued extremely dour predictions for the effect of Brexit on the economy.
These predictions went all the way to The models used to make them are just not capable of forecasting that far ahead.
Enough to build a new NHS hospital every week. We get less than half of this back, and have no say over how it's spent. Nearly 2 million people came to the UK from the EU over the last ten years. Imagine what it will be like in future decades when new, poorer countries join. The countries that use the Euro already have a build-in majority, meaning they can always outvote us. You will be paying the bill for the Euro's failure. It already overrules us on everything from how much tax we pay, to who we can let in and our of the country, and on what terms.
Together we can make a difference and win the referendum with grassroot support from campaigners like you. Library of Congress. UK Parliament. European Union. Accessed Oct. Office for National Statistics. Office for Budget Responsibility.
European Commission. The Financial Times. HM Government. The Guardian. Labor Leave. Vote Leave. Statistics Authority. Ipsos MORI. National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Sky News. The Electoral Commission. May ," Page 6. The Wall Street Journal. International Markets. Actively scan device characteristics for identification. Use precise geolocation data.
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